Resources

Check out our published white papers and favorite coastal resilience resources here.

White Papers

Regional Advisory Boards

Blue Glue

Sea Level Rise Predictions

Summary

Rates of sea level rise (SLR) have increased three-fold over recent decades.
Future scenarios of SLR
- BCDC recommends planning for 0.8 ft of SLR by 2050 and considering rates of 3.1 to 6.6 ft of rise by the year 2100.
- With 3.5 feet of SLR, what is now a 100-year storm event will become an everyday occurrence (high tide).
- SLR is projected to increase the frequency of nuisance high tide flooding from a couple days per year in 2020 to nearly 20 days per year in 2050.

Subsidence

Vertical land motion (VLM), or subsidence, for San Francisco is -0.1 inches/decade, or -0.25 mm/year of subsidence ((OPC 2024; Appendix 3; Table 15). Small compared to current and projected future rates of SLR.

Future SLR Scenarios

The State of California Sea Level Rise Guidance (OPC 2024) provides the best available science on SLR for California. The table below is from Appendix 2 (p. 88)

We're on track for the intermediate or high scenario.

What are now infrequent Bay flood events will become more frequentWith 3.5 feet of SLR, what is now a 100-year storm event will become an everyday occurrence (high tide).SLR is projected to increase the frequency of nuisance high tide flooding from a couple days per year in 2020 to nearly 20 days per year in 2050 (see graph below).

Historic Rates

Rates of rise have increased significantly over the past decades.

Most recent data for Global mean sea level (not adjusted for local vertical land motion, or VLM)

Over the early to mid-20th C, 0.5 ft/century = 1.5 mm/yr (1900 to 1993)
By 1993: 2.0 mm/year
Current Global SLR rate (2024) = 4.4 mm/year

Source: Global Mean Sea Level | Key Indicators – NASA Sea Level Change Portal

Similar source, different methods:

NASA Analysis Sees Spike in 2023 Global Sea Level Due to El Niño – NASA Sea Level Change Portal

Coastal Resilience Resources

The Canal Community Resilience Planning Project

The Canal Community Resilience Planning Project is a collaborative effort exploring the feasibility of different adaptation actions to address flooding risks.

North Carolina Resilience Exchange

Helps local leaders understand their vulnerabilities, identify actions to take, find funding, read about existing regional policies, and find experts who can consult on flooding/sea level rise/extreme heat, etc.

Adaptation Clearinghouse

A resource with countless links to existing coastal resilience strategies, along with a membership/network program that allows you to connect with other professionals

Bay Adapt

"A regional strategy for a rising bay," convened by the San Francisco Bay Conservation and Development Commission

HighTide

These “flood nerds” provide AI-enabled economic impact modeling that can be leveraged by city planners to ensure their residents are safe for decades to come

Climate Mapping for Resilience and Adaptation (CMRA) Portal

Developed by the Biden Administration, this resource compiles case studies of existing coastal resilience projects and offers "how-to's" for establishing resilience nationally

California Adaptation Clearinghouse

The State of California’s consolidated searchable database of resources for local, regional and statewide climate adaptation planning and decision-making

Marin County Resources

Countywide Sea Level Rise Adaptation Organizational Structure and Decision-making Process - Nov. 2024

Marin Sea Level Rise

Marin Shoreline Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assessment

BayWave Adaptation Planning

Transportation Authority of Marin ( TAM ) BayWave Resources

TAM’s February Board Meeting: Existing Plan Review Memo and Vulnerability Focus Areas overview

TAM’s September Board Meeting: Vulnerability Focus Areas to Draft Adaptation Summaries

TAM's Draft Adaptation Summaries

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